Shifting power, fragile peace: the challenges of peacebuilding in Syria

The collapse of the Assad regime has opened both opportunities and profound challenges for peacebuilding in Syria. Whilst no peacebuilding process follows a single blueprint, Syria’s trajectory is particularly complex: it is shaped by shifting regional power balances, the enduring legacies of authoritarian rule, and the emergence of local institutions. This article explores how peacebuilding is evolving in the absence of a strong central state, arguing that institutional adaptation, through local councils, tribal networks, minority communities, and security actors, has become the primary vehicle for negotiating order and reconciliation. Three dynamics stand out: the reconfiguration of authority between state and non-state actors; the contestation between demands for minority inclusion and the risks of sectarian or regional fragmentation; and the influence of external powers whose shifting alignments continue to shape Syria’s institutional landscape. Thus, this paper is guided by the following research question: How is peacebuilding evolving in the absence of a strong central state? In what ways do shifting local, regional, and international power relations shape – and potentially undermine – the prospects for sustainable peace in Syria? And how can peacebuilding approaches be adapted to address these multilayered challenges? We find that peacebuilding is relational, that asymmetric network positions strongly shape patterns of institutional adaptation, and that the cases suggest that local stability is closely linked to how governance arrangements interact with the external networks in which they are embedded.