Archipelagic Cold-Chain Logistics Sprawl and Telematics: Thermal Integrity and Spatial-Economic Efficiency in the Multi-Modal Distribution of Imported Frozen Perishables in Indonesia

Logistics sprawl, commonly understood as the spatial dispersion or outward relocation of logistics facilities, has predominantly been examined through the lens of land-rent optimisation and urban freight distribution in continental settings. However, its implications for archipelagic cold-chain systems remain insufficiently understood, particularly in developing economies where imported temperature-sensitive products must traverse interconnected land, maritime, and inter-island transport networks before reaching geographically dispersed regional markets. This study develops an integrated analytical framework to examine how the spatial dispersion of cold-storage facilities influences transport efficiency, carbon emissions, and thermal integrity in Indonesia’s multimodal cold-chain distribution system. The study proposes a dual-equation empirical design combining a spatial autoregressive panel model to assess transport inefficiency and carbon dioxide emission intensity with a shipment-level probit model to investigate the likelihood of temperature excursions in imported frozen perishables. The analytical framework incorporates spatial dispersion, inter-island transshipment delays, and refrigeration technology associated with Cold Chain 4.0, alongside transit duration, facility-to-destination distance, and telemetry-audited governance compliance. To address monitoring limitations during maritime transportation, the study further proposes a hybrid telematics measurement protocol integrating terrestrial GPS tracking with standalone Internet of Things temperature loggers. Illustrative analyses using simulated data demonstrate the potential of the framework to identify spatial spillover effects, assess the moderating roles of transshipment delays and refrigeration technology, and evaluate the relationships between logistics operations, governance compliance, and temperature-excursion risk. These simulated results serve exclusively to illustrate the analytical approach and should not be interpreted as empirical evidence from actual shipments. The study contributes to logistics-sprawl theory by extending its analytical scope to archipelagic cold chains and integrating spatial-economic efficiency with thermal integrity within a unified framework. It also offers a replicable approach to measuring cold-chain performance under conditions of geographical fragmentation and incomplete maritime connectivity. The proposed framework can inform cold-storage location planning, transshipment management, refrigeration technology investment, and governance strategies aimed at improving distribution efficiency, reducing emissions, and safeguarding the quality of imported frozen perishables in Indonesia and comparable island economies.