When war reshapes uncertainty: the Ukraine conflict, oil markets and great-power geopolitics

Purpose The present study aims to investigate the effect of Russia–Ukraine conflict on the geopolitical risk of major economies like the United States, Russia, China and India. The study also provides empirical evidence regarding Russia–Ukraine conflict's effect on oil price uncertainty and US–China tension. Design/methodology/approach The study applied wavelet power spectrum (WPS) and plot wavelet coherence plot to study the dynamic effect of Russia–Ukraine conflict on geopolitical risk of major nations, oil price uncertainty and US–China tension. Findings The WPS executed on the geopolitical risk index of Ukraine reveals that the Russia–Ukraine conflict generated intense and persistent geopolitical risk in Ukraine. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals strong coherence between Ukraine and the United States, China and Russia. The linkage between Ukraine and India remains weak and episodic. It is also observed that during the conflict geopolitical shocks propagate through global energy markets, thereby increasing uncertainty beyond national borders. It is also evident that regional conflicts can intensify great-power rivalries. Originality/value Unlike prior research that mainly relies on event-based frameworks, the present study employs wavelet coherence analysis to capture the dynamic transmission of geopolitical risk arising from the Russia–Ukraine conflict to geopolitical risk of major economies, oil price uncertainty and US–China tension. The study treats Ukraine's geopolitical risk as an endogenous shock source, thus enabling a deeper understanding of how conflict-origin risks diffuse internationally.