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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) commissioned in 2025 has intensified tensions in the Nile Basin governance between upstream sovereignty and downstream safety and cooperation. This paper examines the hydraulic interdependence between the GERD and Sudan’s Roseires Dam, highlighting operational and safety risks attributed to their proximity and contrasting sizes. It assesses the relevance of International Water Law and the 2015 Declaration of Principles in shaping Ethiopia and Sudan positions. The paper argues that the absence of a legally binding agreement has increased costs of non-cooperation and proposes a phased, law-informed approach centred on data exchange, coordination, and confidence building.
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Mohamed et al. (2026) studied this question.
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