Financial Sustainability and Investment Opportunities in Thermal Tourism Ventures: Evidence From San Vicente, Santa Elena, Ecuador

Thermal tourism can create local economic value when natural attractiveness is converted into visitor stay, service contracting, and local expenditure. This study evaluated demand-side market conditions associated with the San Vicente thermal baths in Santa Elena, Ecuador, and contrasted them with a verifiable local financial benchmark. A quantitative, non-experimental, cross-sectional design was used. In December 2025, a 20-item questionnaire was administered to 378 tourists, equally divided between domestic and international visitors (n = 189 each). Because the original individual-level response matrix is no longer available, the revised manuscript restricts its main claims to archived aggregate results and removes reconstructed-microdata inferential tests from the confirmatory evidence. International visitors showed higher reported means for thermal attractiveness (4.45 vs. 3.68), visit intention (4.42 vs. 3.45), and consumption propensity (4.46 vs. 3.69). Accommodation and transport were the most pronounced service gaps. To address the investment dimension, a threshold analysis was added using a prior financial feasibility study conducted at the same thermal complex. Under that historical benchmark—USD 44 average price per service, USD 4.40 unit variable cost, USD 56,154.43 annual fixed costs, and 1,440 reference annual services—the break-even point is approximately 1,418 services, or 98.5% capacity utilization. This result is not presented as a current investment recommendation; instead, it demonstrates that favorable tourism demand must be matched by a cost, pricing, and occupancy structure compatible with financial equilibrium. The paper contributes by explicitly separating demand signals from financial feasibility and by proposing a reproducible framework for future investment assessments in thermal tourism.