Selection into ecological honors and subsequent forest cover change in Chinese counties

Honorary environmental designations may recognize existing ecological assets without necessarily generating additional improvements. We examine this distinction in China’s National Ecological Civilization Demonstration Program using official county designation lists, reconstructed annual forest cover, and county-level covariates. For the 2017–2020 designation cohorts, we combine an analysis of selection into designation with a stacked event study of forest-cover change. Counties with higher pre-designation forest cover are more likely to receive designation. Estimated average forest-cover changes during the first three full post-designation years are positive but imprecisely estimated. An apparent pattern of larger gains in counties with lower baseline forest cover weakens substantially after accounting for baseline-dependent trajectories among comparison counties. Evaluations of ecological honors should distinguish pre-existing ecological conditions associated with designation from subsequent forest-cover changes.