Resilience and vulnerability factors for post-traumatic symptoms among Israeli adults: the aftermath of 7 October events

Background: Understanding the factors that contribute to resilience and vulnerability following extreme trauma is critical for improving psychological outcomes in affected populations. While previous studies have addressed this question, they often focused on a single phase of trauma or were confounded by socioeconomic and displacement factors, leaving gaps in understanding how pre-, peri-, and post-traumatic variables jointly shape psychological outcomes. Objective: The present study investigated predictors of post-traumatic stress symptoms in the aftermath of the 7 October 2023 attacks in Israel, aiming to provide an integrated model of symptom development. Method: A total of 377 Israeli adults completed online self-report measures assessing pre-, peri-, and post-traumatic experiences, including the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). A trauma exposure index was computed from peri-trauma variables, and two sequential linear regression models, evaluated using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOOCV), were used to examine predictors of post-traumatic symptoms. Results: While trauma-related factors, such as physical injury and proximity to the conflict zone, predicted PCL-5 scores, they explained only 12.4% of PTSD symptom variance. In contrast, the full model, including demographic, pre-, and post-traumatic variables, explained 43% of the variance. Significant predictors included pre-trauma satisfaction with social life (associated with lower PTSD symptoms; β = -.12) and community involvement (associated with higher PTSD symptoms; β = .12), as well as post-traumatic factors associated with greater symptom severity: functional decline (β = .40), psychological treatment (β = .25), news exposure (β = .14), and lower life satisfaction (β = -.23). Conclusions: These findings underscore the limited explanatory power of objective exposure and highlight the critical role of subjective experience and post-traumatic context in shaping psychological outcomes. The study offers unique insights into trauma response in a structurally resource-rich pre-traumatic context, emphasising the need for interventions that address not only exposure but also functional and emotional recovery. Direct trauma exposure explains only a small portion of variance in post-traumatic symptom severity.Social satisfaction was protective, while community involvement and post-traumatic factors (functional decline, treatment, news exposure, low life satisfaction) increased symptom severity.Findings highlight the need for interventions targeting not only exposure but also functional and emotional recovery. Direct trauma exposure explains only a small portion of variance in post-traumatic symptom severity. Social satisfaction was protective, while community involvement and post-traumatic factors (functional decline, treatment, news exposure, low life satisfaction) increased symptom severity. Findings highlight the need for interventions targeting not only exposure but also functional and emotional recovery.