Forecast Horizon and Peer‐Disclosure Effects: Quarterly Versus Annual Management Forecasts

Managers often look to industry peers when deciding whether to issue earnings guidance, but peer‐communication effects can differ across forecast horizons. We examine how the association between peer disclosure and a firm's guidance decision varies for quarterly versus annual management forecasts. Using US management forecast data from 2005 to 2024, we estimate dynamic linear probability models in which a firm's disclosure decision depends on the proportion of industry peers issuing guidance for the same time horizon in the prior period. The evidence indicates a clear horizon split—where a higher proportion of peers issuing guidance in the previous period is associated with a higher likelihood that the focal firm will issue quarterly guidance and a lower likelihood that it will issue annual guidance. Additional analyses indicate that these horizon‐specific associations vary in uncertainty‐related settings, consistent with peer disclosure strengthening short‐horizon disclosure pressure while enabling greater substitution with longer horizons.