Hydrological sensitivity and the reorganization of precipitation with temperature over the tibetan plateau

Understanding how precipitation responds to temperature change is critical for interpreting hydroclimate risk over the Tibetan Plateau, a high-elevation water tower supplying major Asian river systems. While global-mean precipitation increases more slowly than Clausius–Clapeyron moisture scaling, regional responses can vary strongly with circulation and topography. We assess precipitation–temperature coupling over the Tibetan Plateau using two complementary approaches. First, we quantify Tibetan Plateau hydrological sensitivity (TPHS) from 14 CMIP6 models using idealized 1pctCO₂ and PiControl experiments (1850–1999), defined as the percentage change in precipitation per degree of warming. Second, we diagnose temperature-conditioned reorganization of daily precipitation occurrence using a quality-controlled 0.25° gridded observational dataset (1970–2019), evaluating precipitation intensity percentiles conditioned on temperature percentiles. The ensemble-mean TPHS is positive and seasonally varying: 3.6 ± 0.2% °C⁻¹ annually, with seasonal values of 2.6 ± 0.7 (winter), 4.9 ± 0.4 (spring), 3.6 ± 0.3 (summer), and 3.1 ± 0.5% °C⁻¹ (autumn). Observations show a systematic redistribution toward heavier daily intensities under warmer temperature regimes, most pronounced in spring and autumn. Together, these findings indicate that warming is associated with both an enhanced regional-mean precipitation response in CMIP6 models and a shift toward more frequent high-intensity precipitation in observations over the Tibetan Plateau.