Calibrated for response: policy instruments and disaster governance in Brazil

This article examines how the calibration of policy instruments shapes disaster governance in Brazil’s National Social Assistance Policy (PNAS). In 2021, the policy incorporated disaster risk management references into its design, yet between 2020 and 2024, 75–90% of municipalities facing public emergencies carried out emergency-response actions, while only 14–46% undertook planning and preparedness activities. Drawing on a corpus of 79 federal policy documents issued between 2004 and 2025, which 21 established or specified disaster-related instruments, the article identifies the instruments, classifies them by the state resource they mobilize, and scores their calibration on coercion, automaticity, and compliance advantages. Preparedness is incorporated mainly through guidance with low coercion and no associated incentives. Response instruments, in turn, combine strong inducement mechanisms, as in the co-financing of the Service for Protection in Situation of Public Calamities and Emergencies, with operational requirements that are hard to meet when administrative capacity is most strained. The Action Plan, meant to support preparedness in this service, was provided for in the regulation but was never made a condition for federal co-financing. Because the evidence consists of design documents, the findings identify design-side conditions for implementation rather than their effects on municipal practice.