Assessing the Export Potential of the Maghreb Countries: A Non-Parametric Analysis Using the DEA Approach

This study applies a two-stage framework to the export potential of the Arab Maghreb Union. Data envelopment analysis measures the technical efficiency of the 20 directed bilateral export relationships among the five members over 1991 to 2020, and system-GMM regresses the resulting inefficiency scores on economic and institutional determinants. Efficiency is low (mean 0.090; median 0.027) and bimodal: politically constrained pairs cluster near zero, whereas functional corridors reach moderate levels. GDP per capita reduces inefficiency, corruption raises it, and inefficiency is highly persistent (0.672), evidence of trade hysteresis. Reforms deliver gains only where political access exists, supporting sequenced integration.