Technology pathway choices and lifecycle costs of chinese power battery firms under carbon constraints: An empirical analysis of managerial decision-making

China's power battery industry has grown into the world's largest by volume, yet firms now face mounting pressure from carbon pricing mechanisms and evolving emissions trading scheme (ETS) regulations. Strategic technology pathway choices among lithium iron phosphate (LFP), nickel manganese cobalt (NMC), and emerging solid-state chemistries carry material consequences for long-run manufacturing cost structures. This study investigates how carbon constraint intensity and carbon price volatility shape firm-level technology pathway decisions in listed Chinese battery manufacturers, and how managerial characteristics moderate these effects. Using an unbalanced panel of 68 listed Chinese battery firms over 2013–2022 (N = 680 firm-year observations) drawn from CSMAR, Wind, CNIPA, MIIT, and MEEB databases, we construct a Technology Pathway Index (TPI) and a Solid-State Investment Index (SSII). Carbon Constraint Intensity (CCI) combines ETS provincial coverage with prevailing carbon prices. We estimate dynamic panel models with firm and year fixed effects, supplementing OLS estimates with two-stage least squares (2SLS) using provincial energy-sector ETS coverage as an instrument. A one standard deviation increase in CCI raises TPI by 4.19 points under OLS and 5.87 points under 2SLS, confirming a robust positive effect. Carbon price volatility independently elevates solid-state investment. TMT educational diversity amplifies the CCI-TPI relationship (interaction coefficient +2.03, p = 0.004), while CEO tenure attenuates solid-state commitment under uncertainty. Higher TPI values are associated with measurable lifecycle unit cost declines, with the interaction of TPI and CCI generating an additional −0.007 log-unit reduction in COGS per year. Effects are stronger among privately owned enterprises (POEs) than state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Carbon regulation acts as a directional signal that steers managerially capable firms toward lower-carbon LFP pathways and increments solid-state R&D commitment. Policy design should account for SOE soft-budget heterogeneity, and carbon markets benefit from price stability to unlock long-horizon solid-state transitions.