Towards a new development paradigm: insights from the smart shrinkage discourse in Polish strategic documents

Over the past decades, urban shrinkage has emerged as a major global phenomenon. This article investigates how the framing of depopulation shapes the discourse on smart shrinkage in Poland. The theoretical framework distinguishes between recovery, adaptation, and transformation strategies, as well as the role of coordinative discourse. Methodologically, it employs Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) of four national strategic documents (SOR 2030, KSRR 2030, KPM 2030, KRK 2050), complemented by an expert seminar to identify policy-implementation gaps. The findings reveal a gradual discursive evolution: while earlier medium-term strategies (SOR 2030, KSRR 2030) treat depopulation as a ‘demographic trap’ subordinated to growth-oriented recovery, recent frameworks (KPM 2030, and especially KRK 2050) normalize shrinkage as an opportunity for transformation, spatial rightsizing, and technological substitution. This transition may signal a paradigm shift from traditional growth-oriented planning towards a post-growth approach centred on well-being and structural adaptation. However, a substantial policy-implementation gap persists, as local governance remains constrained by growth-oriented institutional, legal, and fiscal frameworks. The study redefines ‘smartness’ as a three-tier sequence wherein a positive narrative normalizing demographic change establishes the necessary foundation for institutionalization, service optimization, and well-being-oriented development indicators.