Population Trends and Recruitment of the Endangered Mountain Gazelle (Gazella gazella) in Türkiye, 2020–2025

The Hatay mountain gazelle (Gazella gazella) population, the only one in Türkiye, is concentrated in a narrow area on the Türkiye–Syria border and marks the northern limit of the species’ global range. Vantage point counts from 2020–2025 were analysed, with statistical models fitted to the standardised 39-point network of 2021–2025. A negative binomial generalised linear model with vantage point fixed effects detected a significant increase in the count index of 7.1% per point per year (IRR = 1.071; 95% CI: 1.024–1.120; p = 0.0029; mixed model with point-specific trends: IRR = 1.078; p = 0.028). Spatial statistics (Getis-Ord Gi*, Moran’s I) showed that this increase was concentrated in the southern sector, and the weighted population centroid shifted 1.94 km to the south-east. The observed fawn:female ratio increased from 0.179 in 2021 to 0.664 in 2025 (beta-binomial GLMM, OR = 1.409 per year; p < 0.0001; year-level p = 0.023) and the male:female ratio from 0.359 to 1.146 (OR = 1.312 per year; p < 0.0001; year-level p = 0.003), whereas the number of females counted fell by 33.2% and the number of adults remained nearly constant. These findings are consistent with a conservation success but underline the fragility of a population concentrated at a single site. Recruitment indicators levelled off in 2023–2025, consistent with but not demonstrating density dependence; total counts showed no significant deceleration. Because adult females determine future reproductive capacity, the decline in females is a central conservation concern.