Numerical Assessment of Wave Energy Conversion into Electricity in Lebanon: Modeling, Techno-Economic and Environmental Analysis

Lebanon’s prolonged electricity crisis has renewed interest in renewable energy; yet the wave energy resource of its 220 km Mediterranean coastline has not been reassessed since 2013 and has never been evaluated within an integrated techno-economic framework. Model-derived daily significant wave heights for 2022 and 2023 at three coastal sites (Tripoli, Beirut and Saida), obtained from an operational wave forecast and compared with three other wave datasets, were analyzed with linear wave theory, consistently with the offshore origin of the data. Three wave energy converters (Pelamis, Wave Dragon and AquaBuoy) were evaluated from their power matrices, followed by techno-economic and CO2 emission assessments. The annual mean wave power flux was 2.6–4.3 kW/m (other wave datasets: 1.4–3.2 kW/m), about 41% lower than the preliminary shallow-water estimate, and a 31-year reanalysis shows that 2022 was an average year and 2023 about 10% below average. All converters operated far below their rated power: Wave Dragon had the highest capacity factor (about 4.9%), three to four times lower than for the same device in the Madeira Archipelago, but with interpolated power matrices its output was halved and Pelamis ranks first. With 2026 costs and electricity valued at the weighted avoided cost of the current utility–generator supply (0.419 USD/kWh, an upper-bound revenue case), the 20-year Net Present Value of Wave Dragon is +1.3 million USD under ideal availability but −1.0 million USD with 90% availability and 5% losses; viability therefore requires an electricity value of about 0.45 USD/kWh or more and confirmation of the production estimate. Pelamis and AquaBuoy are not viable. Wave Dragon would avoid about 2400 t of CO2 per year in gross operational terms.