Temperature and active school commuting among elementary children in Central Texas: a longitudinal observational study

Background Extreme temperatures may influence children’s active commuting to and from school (ACS), yet limited evidence exists from warm climates using objective measures. We examined the association between air temperature and ACS among elementary children in a humid subtropical region. Methods We analyzed longitudinal data from 337 children living within one mile of 35 schools in Austin, Texas, United States. We measured ACS (walking or cycling versus motorized travel) for each child over third, fourth, and fifth grade using accelerometers and GPS devices across multiple school years (2019–2024), and time-matched these data with air temperature and other weather variables from the nearest weather station. Three-level mixed-effects logistic regression models estimated associations between temperature and ACS. The final model included random intercepts for child and school and adjusted for other variables at the commute level (relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, commute direction), child level (sex, race/ethnicity, parent education, parent-reported concern about crime and traffic near school), and school level (sidewalks, bicycle lanes, tree canopy, road connectivity). We included a piecewise linear term following evidence of nonlinearity from the Davies test. Results Air temperatures during the 2,571 measured school commutes ranged from − 2 to 37 °C (28 to 98 °F) and averaged 19 °C (66 °F). Few (13%) commutes were active. Regression modeling identified a nonlinear relationship between temperature and ACS, with a breakpoint at 22 °C (72 °F). For temperatures up to 22 °C, each 1 °C increase was associated with higher odds of ACS (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.06–1.14, p < 0.001). For temperatures greater than 22 °C, the association was not statistically significant (OR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.90–1.04, p = 0.34). Conclusions Warmer temperatures were associated with more ACS up to 22 °C, with a slight, nonsignificant decline beyond that. Findings highlight the importance of understanding how temperature influences school‑travel behavior and suggest that communities may consider heat adaptation strategies (e.g., incorporating heat safety in ACS programming, planting shade trees along routes) to support safe and comfortable ACS in a warming climate, particularly as some children continue to walk or cycle at high temperatures.