Decarbonizing the European Cement Industry: A Bottom-Up Assessment of Cross-Sectoral Dependencies

The European cement industry is at a critical juncture, requiring a "twin transition" toward climate neutrality and circularity. As one of the most energy- and CO2-intensive sectors—accounting for 4% of all EU energy and industry-related emissions—its transformation is essential for meeting regional climate goals. This presentation explores decarbonization pathways for the EU27+UK cement sector using ITOM-Cement, a high-resolution, bottom-up optimization model. Developed as a cornerstone of the MIC3 modeling framework within the TRANSIENCE project, ITOM-Cement provides a granular representation of the production chain, from site-level clinker kilns to regional cement milling. The model uniquely captures the dynamic interplay of external factors, such as CO2 prices, regional resource availability, and multi-modal transport logistics. We present two distinct scenarios that highlight the cement industry's integration within the broader industrial "solution space". The analysis focuses on three pivotal cross-sector dependencies: The Steel Industry: Examining the evolving availability of blast furnace slag, a primary supplementary cementitious material (SCM) currently used to reduce the clinker factor. The Petrochemical Industry: Analyzing competition for carbon-based energy carriers. As sectors decarbonize, materials once used as alternative fuels in cement kilns are increasingly sought by petrochemical firms as circular feedstocks. Infrastructure Logistics: Assessing how the cost and availability of CO2 transport and storage networks dictate the feasibility of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Our findings suggest these factors may drive a centralization of clinker production and significantly reshape industrial clusters. Preliminary results indicate that while fossil fuels could be replaced by 2030 under rising CO2 prices, electricity demand will rise sharply as CCS is deployed. We conclude by outlining policy implications necessary to support this climate-neutral transition.