Spatiotemporal interactions between economic pressure of population aging and new quality productive forces: a socio-economic system analysis of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Introduction Population aging and innovation-driven transformation are reshaping the economic sustainability of urban agglomerations. This study investigates the interaction between new quality productive forces and the economic pressure of population aging in the Yangtze River Delta. Methods Using balanced panel data covering 41 cities from 2015 to 2024. This study constructs multidimensional indices for the two subsystems with a network autoencoder, thereby avoiding the information loss associated with conventional linear weighting. A coupling coordination model, combined with Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition and global and local Moran’s I statistics, is then applied to reveal evolutionary trajectories, sources of regional disparities, and spatial agglomeration patterns. Results New quality productive forces maintained steady growth, whereas the economic pressure of population aging exhibited an accelerated upward trend after 2020. The coupling coordination degree showed a fluctuating trajectory, with distinct provincial-level gradients and a persistent core-periphery spatial structure. Transvariation density was identified as the primary source of regional disparities, indicating substantial cross-group overlap. The coupling coordination degree also exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation, although its intensity fluctuated over time. Conclusion These findings provide city-level evidence for optimizing the spatial layout of socio-economic systems and developing differentiated policy instruments for sustainable urban regeneration through systems-oriented governance amid population aging.