Assessment of Individual Fire Risk for a Cultural Heritage Site Based on Simulation Modeling

Objective. The aim of the study is to develop a methodology for the quantitative assessment of individual fire risk for a cultural heritage site, based on the simulation modeling of fire hazard dynamics and human evacuation processes. Method. The research methodology is based on a comprehensive probabilistic assessment of individual fire risk using simulation modeling techniques. These allow for the consideration of the unique architectural and layout features of the historic building and provide a scientific basis for permitting deviations from current fire safety regulations without compromising the building's historical value. Result. The developed approach integrates a field model of fire hazard dynamics, a human evacuation model that accounts for occupant mobility, and a stochastic model of fire protection system reliability. Conclusion. Integrating the field model of fire hazard propagation with the stochastic evacuation model overcame the limitations of traditional deterministic methods. The proposed targeted organizational and technical measures ensure an optimal balance between preserving the building's historical authenticity and guaranteeing the safety of its occupants.