Do green global value chains foster structural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence on the role of political stability

Purpose This paper examines whether participation in green global value chains (GGVCs) promotes structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and whether this effect depends on political stability. Design/methodology/approach A multidimensional GGVC index is constructed by principal component analysis from five indicators capturing network integration, green trade content and the green productive and financial base. Using data for 38 SSA countries over 2010–2023, the relationship is estimated with a two-step system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator and conditional marginal effects are computed. Findings GGVC participation promotes structural transformation only above a minimum level of political stability. The marginal effect, 0.245 + 0.241 × political stability, becomes positive above a threshold of −1.02. Below this level, which covers 28.8% of observations, green integration may generate compliance enclaves rather than broad-based transformation. The results are robust to alternative measures of structural transformation, institutional quality and GGVC participation. Research limitations/implications The estimates are conditional associations rather than causal effects, and the composite index summarises a multidimensional phenomenon with moderate sampling adequacy. Practical implications Green industrial policies should be sequenced according to countries' institutional readiness. Originality/value The paper argues that entry into green chains is gated by the credibility of compliance rather than by cost, and estimates the level of political stability at which green integration begins to support structural transformation.