A Novel Extreme Weather Risk Insurance System for Kenya (NEWRISK): Encouraging preparedness, planning, community co-design, and protection of Kenya’s health system from the effects of extreme weather

Kenya is a frontline country for extreme weather and faces long droughts, flooding and heat waves. This study will focus on the broader, pervasive health risks associated with the reduction or catastrophic withdrawal of health services. Our aim is to determine what extreme weather hazards Kenya faces, and how resulting impacts on the population and health service can be mitigated, creating scalable tools that inform planning. This study will be carried out in four counties, selected to represent the different climatic regions of Kenya. We will conduct a mixed methods study drawing on qualitative participatory approaches, climate modelling, health facility surveys and health economic modelling. We will conduct a policy document review; non-participant observations of key county budgeting and planning events; in-depth interviews with health managers; and stakeholder dialogue workshops to co-create a framework for developing extreme weather mitigation plans. We will use the latest climate analysis techniques to provide high resolution data on heat and precipitation for the whole of Kenya. Drawing on secondary data, we will then create a population vulnerability index to spatially represent vulnerable populations. We will create a tool to assess the readiness of public health facilities across four counties. We will map this data to understand the interactions between extreme weather, population vulnerability, and the health system. We will present this information during community consultation and stakeholder workshops to get input and co-develop mitigation plans. Finally, we will use health economics methods to estimate the costs of doing nothing versus various protective strategies. We will create a set of tools and methods that can be combined to analyse the extreme weather threats posed to health systems or inform a climate risk insurance product. We expect to provide policymakers with practical approaches to protect their health systems and populations.