Time-Series Econometric Analysis of Factors Associated with Under-Five Mortality in Senegal

Under-five mortality remains a major public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, and Senegal is still far from the Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 target set for 2030. This study examines the factors associated with under-five mortality in Senegal over the period 2000-2023, using twenty-four annual observations drawn from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from official statistics of the National Agency for Statistics and Demography. A multiple linear regression model estimated by ordinary least squares is used. The explanatory variables cover malaria control (insecticide-treated net coverage), residential structure, children’s nutritional status (stunting and acute malnutrition), and maternal human capital (schooling). The model has high explanatory power (R 2 = 0.964) and identifies two statistically significant factors with a negative effect on under-five mortality: insecticide-treated net use (β = −0.676; p = 0.003) and maternal schooling (β = −2.575; p < 0.001). The residuals meet the normality and homoscedasticity assumptions, and collinearity among the regressors remains moderate. Ramsey’s specification test points to possible non-linearity, and the trending nature of the series calls for cautious interpretation of the coefficients; the two main effects are nonetheless robust to Newey-West standard errors. The findings support strengthening girls’ education and vector-control programmes as central levers for reducing child mortality, together with sustained investment in health information systems for policy evaluation.