Demand Forecasting and Household Benefits of Shared Private Charging Piles Under Increasing-Block Electricity Pricing in Beijing: A BiLSTM–Attention Approach

China’s charging infrastructure has not expanded as fast as its electric vehicle (EV) fleet, and the resulting capacity gap is now the main constraint on further adoption. Shared private charging piles (SPCPs), meaning privately installed chargers opened to outside drivers, are often proposed as a substitute for new construction, but what a participating household actually gains under increasing-block electricity pricing (IBP) has not been quantified. This study quantifies that gap for Beijing in two stages. A bidirectional long short-term memory network with an attention mechanism (BiLSTM–Attention) forecasts SPCP growth to 2030 under three development scenarios; a commuter behavior-based shared charging model then sets charging and parking fees jointly. Forecast accuracy is high: the MAPE is 4.65% and R2 is 0.93, against 8.80% for a plain BiLSTM, 14.10% for LSTM, 16.84% for GRU, 16.89% for RNN and 20.34% for CNN. Adoption rises substantially by 2030 in every scenario. The offset itself is small, however: even under the most favorable assumptions the shared stock displaces no more than 497 equivalent 60 kW public piles, so SPCPs complement public investment rather than replacing it. Under the IBP policy, a household that shares its charger earns up to CNY 1665.3 per year from charging and CNY 8448 from shared parking, before platform commission and maintenance costs are deducted. Parking, not the electricity tariff, drives most of that gain, so tariff design alone understates the incentive to share.