The Effects of Climate Change in Africa: Replicating the GCA Model for Economic Development

Climate change represents one of the most significant challenges confronting economic development in Africa during the twenty-first century. Although the continent contributes less than four percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, African countries remain among the most vulnerable to climate-induced shocks, including rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, flooding, desertification, biodiversity loss, and disruptions to agricultural productivity. This study replicates and extends the analytical framework developed by the Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation investments across African economies. Using a panel dataset covering 48 African countries from 2000-2023, the study employs fixed-effects estimation, System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and instrumental variable techniques to examine the relationship between climate exposure, adaptation finance, vulnerability, and economic growth. The findings indicate that climate-related shocks significantly reduce GDP per capita growth, particularly in agriculture-dependent economies. However, adaptation investments substantially mitigate economic losses and improve resilience outcomes. Counterfactual simulations suggest that scaling adaptation financing in line with the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (AAAP) could reduce cumulative GDP losses by between 12 and 30 percent over a decade. The study concludes that adaptation investments constitute not only a climate policy response but also a critical development strategy for Africa.