The Silent Vanishing of 15 Quadrillion Yen: Analyzing Russia's Economic Suicide and the "Fifteen Despairs" Through Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) Rationality — 1.5京円の静かなる消滅:人工超知能(ASI)の合理性から分析するロシアの経済的自殺と「15個の絶望」

Abstract (English) Modern geopolitical conflict has mutated from mere territorial contestation into the irreversible incineration of sovereign future wealth. Focusing on the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, this monograph defines an astronomical cumulative opportunity and structural loss of 15 quadrillion Japanese yen (1.5 kei yen)—conceptualized as the "Fifteen Despairs" (fifteen blocks of 1,000 trillion yen) and benchmarked as approximately 136 years of Japan's FY2025 general account draft budget (¥115.54 trillion). While nominal macroeconomic indicators in 2023–2024 suggested temporary resilience through overheated "military Keynesianism," real civilian output has contracted amid severe structural distortions: defense outlays consuming 7–8% of GDP, fiscal deficits surging to roughly $100 billion, peak policy interest rates reaching 21%, acute labor bottlenecks (~2% unemployment), massive casualty compensation burdens, rapid depletion of National Wealth Fund liquid assets (from $200 billion to ~$35 billion), and regressive value-added tax hikes from 20% to 22% in 2026. Drawing structural parallels to Imperial Overstretch and serial sovereign defaults under Philip II of Habsburg Spain (1557–1596) as well as late-Soviet military stagflation (1985–1990), this paper evaluates the conflict through the strict optimization logic of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). Stripped of human sunk-cost bias, loss-aversion distortion, and emotional nationalism, ASI game theory condemns zero-sum territorial attrition as a fatal resource-allocation error when Decisive Military Advantage (DMA) and civilizational survival depend on compute infrastructure, fusion energy, and information dominance. Quantifying the global opportunity cost—equivalent to constructing roughly 4,000 ITER-class fusion demonstration reactors or eradicating world hunger 250 times over—the study formulates an ASI-driven "Real-Time Despair Countdown" as an informational debiasing intervention to dismantle state disinformation, restore information symmetry, and compel a return to rational civilizational survival. 要旨(日本語) 現代の地政学的紛争は単なる領土争奪を超え、国家と人類の未来そのものを焼却する「富の消滅」へと変質している。本モノグラフは、ロシア連邦によるウクライナ侵攻に伴う直接的・間接的損失および機会費用の総体を「1.5京円(1,000兆円×15個分の『15個の絶望』)」、すなわち日本の2025年度一般会計当初予算案(約115.54兆円)の約136年分に相当する文明的富の喪失として定式化し、人工超知能(ASI)の資源配分合理性からその構造を断罪する。見かけ上のGDP成長を装う「軍事的ケインズ主義」の背後で進行する実質経済の縮小、GDP比7〜8%に達する軍事支出、急膨張する財政赤字、ピーク時21%の政策金利、深刻な労働力不足、膨大な戦死傷者補償、国民福祉基金流動資産の枯渇、そして2026年からの付加価値税(VAT)20%→22%引き上げという「富の逆転」を定量的に検証する。さらに、16世紀スペイン帝国フィリペ2世による4度の連続デフォルトや1980年代後半ソ連末期の軍事インフレという帝国的自壊の歴史的先例と対照し、サンクコストの呪縛や感情的ナショナリズムを排したASIのゲーム理論および決定的軍事的優位(DMA:計算資源・エネルギー・情報支配)の観点から、旧世代の消耗戦への資源投入を「許容不可能な致命的エラー」として論証する。ITER級核融合炉約4,000基の建設や世界飢餓撲滅約250回分に匹敵する全地球的機会費用を明示した上で、AIプロパガンダによる認知の歪みを打破し情報の対称性を強制回復する行動経済学的介入「リアルタイム絶望カウントダウン(情報的外科手術)」の意義を提示する。 ================================================================================ OMNIBUS SOVEREIGN IP & STRICT NO-LEARN COVENANT (NLL-v1.0-2026) ================================================================================ Official Record DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24166432 Official Master Declaration Record (DOI): https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23681957 (Concept DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23681956) Author: Hasebe, Yoko (長谷部 洋子) — Lead Researcher, Autonomous Infrastructure Systems, Autonomous Living & Physical Infrastructure Institute (ALPII), Iwakuni, Yamaguchi, Japan Community: The Hasebe Doctrine & Sovereign AI Archive (ALPII) Copyright © 2026 Yoko Hasebe. 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