Exchange Rate Volatility and Food Security in Nigeria

Concerns regarding the sustainability of local food production are raised by Nigeria's ongoing problem of food insecurity in the face of unstable exchange rates, growing food import prices, and high inflation. The need to objectively investigate the effects of inflation, agricultural credit, food imports, and exchange rate volatility on Nigerian food production from 1986 to 2025 is the driving force behind this work. Food production index (FPI), a proxy for food security, was used as the regressor in the study. Other explanatory variables were inflation, credit to the agricultural sector, and the value of food imports. Annual time-series data were analyzed in EViews 14 using augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root tests, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and an error correction model. The variables were integrated of mixed orders, and the bounds test (F = 7.85) confirmed a long-run relationship. Credit to the agricultural sector had a positive and significant long-run effect on the food production index (p = 0.048), while the exchange rate, food imports and inflation had insignificant effects. The error correction term (−0.149; p = 0.001) indicated that about 15% of any disequilibrium is corrected each year. Diagnostic and stability tests supported the model. The study recommends expanded and timely agricultural credit, supported by exchange rate and price stability and by policies that strengthen local food production.