Quantitative hydrocarbon resource assessment of Frontier Baffin Bay and northern Davis Strait, northeast Canada

Baffin Bay in the NE Arctic of Canada is a frontier region with substantial but poorly quantified hydrocarbon potential. Previous resource assessment studies focused on isolated basin sectors in Baffin Bay, resulting in inconsistent range of volumes. This paper applies an integrated approach, dividing the region into four distinct assessment units based on their tectonic and depositional settings. To address the sparse local data typical of the frontier setting, a comparative methodology was developed by leveraging geological information from analogous global basins. Monte Carlo simulations resulted in a probabilistic distribution of hydrocarbon resources, yielding a mean volume of 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The calculated P10:P90 ratio, a proxy for uncertainty, was determined to be seven, reflecting limited regional geological constraints. While this study does not evaluate commercial viability, the baseline assessment establishes a framework that can be improved with the acquisition of more geophysical and geological data.