Strategies for Upgrading SMEs for Inclusion and Poverty Reduction in Copperbelt and North-Western Zambia: Evidence from Mining Value Chains

Zambia’s copper output is expanding towards a national target of 3 million tonnes by 2031, yet small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Copperbelt and North-Western provinces remain weakly integrated into mining value chains, and poverty remains high. This study examines how government, NGO and mining-sector support for SME upgrading relates to SME inclusion and poverty reduction, and which strategies could strengthen these links. A concurrent mixed-methods design combined a survey of 1,020 respondents from SMEs supplying mining value chains with qualitative interviews and focus groups. Data were analysed using regression, structural equation modelling in AMOS, multivariate analysis of variance and thematic analysis. NGO support (β = .600) and mining-sector support (β = .175) predicted SME upgrading (R² = .52), whereas government support had the weakest measurement loading (.437) and was not retained. Process upgrading (β = .629) and product upgrading (β = .170) predicted inclusion (R² = .545), while functional and inter-sectoral upgrading did not. Perceived inclusion and poverty reduction were almost perfectly associated (β = .982, R² = .965), which, together with overlapping measurement, calls for cautious interpretation. Outcomes did not differ by gender, education, location, age or premises ownership (all Pillai’s trace p > .14), and the study had 80% power to detect standardised differences of 0.18 between two groups. Qualitative evidence identified limited access to affordable capital (high collateral, stringent loan terms and high interest rates), delayed payment by large buyers, and quality-assurance and certification requirements as binding constraints. The article proposes a multi-actor strategy framework comprising a supplier development platform, local content compliance monitoring, supply-chain finance, quality and certification support and inclusion targets, phased over four years and aligned with Zambia’s 2025 local content regulations. Findings are cross-sectional and perceptual, and verification with objective outcome data is recommended.