The Futures Thinking Kite scenario method

Purpose This study aims to develop the Futures Thinking Kite as a scenario method using a visual heuristic to examine four conditional relationships between intervention intensity and desirable outcomes. Design/methodology/approach This conceptual paper draws on futures studies, systems thinking and research on subtraction. Hypothetical policing and mobility applications frame the discussion; city housing and Australian wetland scenarios extend it. The paper compares related approaches, specifies the framework and proposes a facilitation protocol. Findings Using terminology from The Inclusive Futures Method (Russo, 2025), the four relationships are Expansion (more brings us more), Compression (more brings us less), Erosion (less brings us less) and Regeneration (less brings us more). Their interpretation depends on the intervention, outcome, baseline, affected people and time horizon. The paper distinguishes tipping points from deliberate stopping rules and proposes an evaluation agenda. Originality/value Building on the Kite previously presented in The Inclusive Futures Method (Russo, 2025, ch. 41), the paper develops its connection to futures practice through an explicit protocol, worked illustrations and an evaluation agenda. The contribution is methodological elaboration; effectiveness remains to be evaluated.