Air pollution and college choice: evidence from China’s National college entrance examination

College choice is a pivotal life decision that influences long-term regional human capital accumulation. However, the impact of the living environment, particularly air pollution, on this decision remains underexplored. This paper examines the causal effect of air pollution on students’ college choice using thermal inversion as an instrument. We collect detailed data on college admissions in China from 2016 to 2023 at the province-year-track-college-major level. Using standardized minimum admission cut-off scores to measure the revealed competitiveness of college-major admission cells, we find that a 10% increase in PM2.5 concentrations is associated with a 1.54-point decrease in the minimum admission score, equivalent to a deterioration of 843 positions in the provincial ranking. A timing placebo test based on pollution measured after the application window further supports the causal interpretation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger pollution-avoidance responses among applicants to out-of-province and non-elite colleges, arts-track applicants, and applicants to humanities and social sciences majors. The effect is more pronounced among applicants from provinces with greater attention to air pollution and among those applying to colleges located in cities with higher pollution levels than their home provinces. Finally, higher pollution in applicants’ home provinces is associated with greater revealed demand for environment-related majors.