Trajectories of Triglyceride–Glucose Index and Incident Hypertension During Young Adulthood: A Longitudinal Cohort Study in China

Evidence regarding the influence of triglyceride–glucose (TyG) index trajectory patterns on incident hypertension remains limited. In this study, we aimed to explore the association between TyG index trajectories and hypertension risk among Chinese young adults. This cohort study included 2376 young adults, predominantly male, who attended at least three annual check-ups from 2014 to 2021, without hypertension at baseline. The latent class growth mixture model was used to identify various trajectory patterns of the TyG index during young adulthood. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate associations between TyG index trajectory group memberships and incident hypertension via the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The baseline mean age of these participants was 31.6 (6.5) years. During the average follow-up of 3.2 years, 13.7% were diagnosed with incident hypertension. Three distinct trajectories labeled as low-stable (36.9%), medium-rising (58.0%), and high-rising (5.1%) were identified. In comparison with the low-stable group, the high-rising and medium-rising groups were 2.83 times (95% CI: 1.63–4.93) and 2.25 times (95% CI: 1.45–3.50) more likely to develop hypertension. The Kaplan–Meier curves of incident hypertension likewise indicated that the findings were consistent. Rising TyG index trajectories during young adulthood were independently associated with an increased risk of hypertension. Monitoring longitudinal TyG index trajectory trends could be beneficial for the early prevention of hypertension; young adults in the high-rising and medium-rising trajectory groups, particularly young men, may warrant prioritization for primary hypertension prevention.