Technical–Tactical Performance Indicators Associated with Match Outcome in the Bulgarian First Professional Football League: A Match-Level Analysis of Three Seasons

Evidence on indicators that accompany winning comes mainly from elite leagues. This study examined the association between technical–tactical indicators and match outcome in the Bulgarian First Professional Football League. Wyscout team statistics were analysed for 829 matches (2022/23–2024/25). Nine process indicators describing possession, progression, penalty-area entry, transition and pressing were expressed as home-minus-away differences per 90 min. An ordinal mixed model of the outcome (loss, draw, win) included season effects, pre-match team strength and club and club-season effects shared across home and away appearances; out-of-sample classification was assessed chronologically (training 2022/23–2023/24, testing 2024/25). Penalty-area entries via runs (OR = 1.62, 1.33–1.97), counterattacks (1.65, 1.39–1.97), interceptions (1.36, 1.10–1.70) and deep completions (1.35, 1.07–1.70) were associated with a more favourable outcome, whereas penalty-area entries via crosses (0.49, 0.39–0.63) and less intense pressing (higher PPDA; 0.60, 0.44–0.83) were associated with a less favourable outcome. Possession was negatively associated with outcome in the primary model (0.64, 0.44–0.92), but this association was not robust across specifications. The other associations were robust to alternative strength measures, random-effect structures and dyadic-robust inference. Outcomes were differentiated by how teams entered the penalty area rather than by possession; these retrospective associations cannot separate tactical choice from game-state effects.