Anticipated Outcomes of Defunding the Police: How Definitions and Political Orientation Shape Public Perceptions

Past research on perceptions of “defund the police” has largely focused on support for the movement and how the term itself is understood. Less is known about what individuals believe would happen if defunding the police were implemented in their communities. Across two studies, participants evaluated the anticipated impact of defunding the police on community quality of life, assessed its risks and benefits, and described anticipated outcomes in their own words. Study 1 (N = 93) indicated that participants anticipated negative outcomes, particularly increased crime, although perceived benefits, including increased social services and reduced police violence, also emerged. In Study 2 (N = 494) participants were exposed to an experimentally manipulated definition of defunding the police as either eliminating police or redirecting police funds toward social services. Participants in the redirect condition anticipated better quality of life and more benefits than those in the eliminate condition, but political orientation moderated these effects. The experimental definition did not significantly impact perceptions of quality of life or risks and benefits for extremely conservative participants. Experimental definition and political orientation also predicted participants’ anticipated outcomes. Collectively, findings highlight the importance of policy definitions and political orientation in understanding perceptions of defunding the police.