Predicting Project Time and Cost by Considering the Effects of Project Risks and the Interdependence of Risks Using the Concept of Stratification

Uncertainty in projects introduces the possibility of various states of risk, reducing the accuracy of time and cost predictions. This article presents a forecasting model that enhances prediction accuracy by incorporating risk management processes and risk dependency relationships through the concept of stratification. By applying stratification, all risk occurrences and their impacts on project time and cost are evaluated both before and after implementing response strategies. The application of the proposed model to a dam construction project revealed that, if risks are not considered, the actual project duration increased by 44.73% compared to the predicted time, and the actual cost exceeded the estimated cost by 31.13%. However, when response strategies were implemented, the project duration decreased by 9.66%, and the cost was reduced by 15.14%, underscoring the significance of risk management in project time and cost estimation. Sensitivity analysis of the proposed model further confirms the necessity of assessing all risk classes and occurrences through stratification in both evaluation and response stages.