Fertiliser adoption strategies and household welfare: evidence from panel analysis in Ghana

This study examines the welfare implications of fertiliser adoption strategies – organic only, inorganic only, and combined use – among farming households in Ghana, where decades of fertiliser promotion have coincided with persistently low and spatially uneven adoption. Using a balanced panel of 3,856 households from the Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey and a doubly robust inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) estimator, we assess effects on household assets, dietary diversity, and poverty. At the population level (average treatment effect), no strategy significantly affects asset accumulation, all three strategies are associated with higher poverty likelihood, and only inorganic-only use significantly improves dietary diversity. Among adopters (average treatment effect on the treated), inorganic-only and combined adoption increase assets by approximately 22% and 31%, respectively, and inorganic-only adoption improves dietary diversity by 0.30 units while the corresponding combined-use effects are only marginally significant. A multinomial specification estimated over all four adoption categories shows that combined and inorganic-only effects are not statistically distinguishable for any outcome, and a decomposition of the poverty index attributes the poverty-worsening association to slow-moving structural and locational components rather than food consumption. Policies should prioritise reliable access to inorganic fertiliser and the reduction of adoption barriers, while ensuring that application rates and types are optimal and evidence-based.