Islamism, Sectarianism, and International Public Opinion in the Middle East

Islamism and sectarianism are two related religious cleavages in the Middle East, and regional leaders draw on both to appeal to foreign publics. Using Arab Barometer data and mediation analysis, this study examines whether these cleavages shape evaluations of Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia through the images of their leaders. The pattern is one of trade-offs. Turkish President Erdoğan's Islamist appeal enhances Turkey's image among Islamist publics but reduces its favorability among Shia and secular ones. Former Supreme Leader Khamenei's standing tracks sectarian alignment closely but creates a dependence that limits Iran's broader pan-Islamic reach. Crown Prince Bin Salman's stance yields only modest effects across Islamist divides, while Shia identity remains a strong source of negative views of him and his country. By showing how leader images carry religious cues across borders, the study reveals how faith-based divisions shape international public opinion across borders.