Failing great expectations: Systemic assessment of the technological and economic viability of commercial fusion undertakings

Start-ups and governments have great expectations about the future of energy from fusion, like imminent roll-out at scale, abundance, low cost and negligible environmental impact. Most start-ups claim to be in the final stages of building a fully functional fusion power plant. The aim of this study is to assess these narratives and the communicated expectations around fusion energy. These clear narratives are compared with the state of knowledge, the low technical maturity of essential processes, and the pending integration of interacting and parallel processes into an extremely complex fusion energy system. Narratives of a benign or sustainable technology are related to immense resource and energy needs. Promises of abundance at low cost are placed in perspective of inherent complexity and resource demand. This study is unable to support the great expectations set forth by these start-ups and governments. Meeting the technical needs of a reliable and cost-effective power plant with fusion seems exceptionally unlikely, as research still does not provide basic answers for essential engineering. A fusion energy system will not be clean, carbon-neutral or benign. Cost of fusion power will in view of the immense resource demand substantially exceed the cost of renewable or fission power. Metal availability constrains any energy system and would severely limit fusion power capacity, well below abundance. As these factors impede the economic viability of fusion power, this study seeks possible alternative viable business models of fusion start-ups and political narratives, outside of creating a fusion power plant.