Cognitive trajectories before and after the Global Financial Crisis: a 20-year cohort study of older adults in Australia

OBJECTIVES: Macroeconomic shocks may influence cognitive function in later life. We examined cognitive trajectories around the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) among older Australians and whether resilience factors modified these trajectories. METHODS: We used longitudinal data from 1,872 community-dwelling adults in the 60-66-year cohort of the PATH Through Life Study. Participants were followed from 2001-2002 to 2020-2021 across six waves (∼4-year intervals). Perceived financial impact of the GFC and co-occurring distress/anxiety were assessed at wave 3 (2009-2010) and categorised as no impact, impact without distress/anxiety, and impact with distress/anxiety. A global cognitive composite was calculated and standardised as z-scores. Linear mixed-effects models estimated pre-GFC change, change during the GFC, and post-GFC change. Effect modification by 13 resilience factors was examined. RESULTS: Most reported no financial impact (66.2%); 23.8% reported impact without distress/anxiety, and 10.0% with distress/anxiety. Pre-GFC cognitive decline was similar across groups. During the GFC, all groups experienced a decline (-0.057 to -0.091 SD). During the post-GFC period, cognition declined further at similar rates in the no impact, impact without distress/anxiety, and impact with distress/anxiety groups: -0.073 SD/year (95% CI: -0.080, -0.066), -0.070 (-0.079, -0.060), and -0.069 (-0.083, -0.056), respectively. Higher physical health-related quality of life attenuated the decline during the GFC, while greater life satisfaction and positive social support were associated with slower post-GFC decline. DISCUSSION: Cognitive decline increased around the GFC period and continued thereafter, with no evidence that these changes differed by perceived financial impact or distress/anxiety. Causal attribution to the GFC is limited by the absence of an unexposed comparison group.