Land use and land cover dynamics in Gullele Botanic Garden, Ethiopia

Urban botanic gardens provide opportunities for conservation and restoration, but their establishment as institutions must be distinguished from subsequent changes in landscape cover. This study quantified land cover dynamics within the landscape encompassing Gullele Botanic Garden, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, between 2008 and 2024, spanning its establishment in 2009. Landsat imagery for 2008, 2016, and 2024 was classified using supervised maximum likelihood classification in ArcGIS 10.8. Classification accuracy was assessed using reference imagery and field observations, while interviews provided contextual information on management activities and other reported influences. Mapped forest cover increased from 255 to 562.1 ha, representing a 120.4% gain. Bare ground declined from 251 to 43.1 ha, while grassland decreased from 164 to 84.9 ha. Water and urban agriculture were mapped in 2024, occupying 0.66 ha and 0.84 ha, respectively. These changes indicate substantial vegetation expansion within the study boundary during the garden’s establishment and development. Reported conservation and restoration activities provide plausible explanations for this trajectory, although the study does not isolate their causal contribution. Moreover, the forest class does not distinguish native vegetation from exotic plantations, limiting inference about biodiversity recovery. The findings support integrating land cover monitoring with assessments of native species composition, regeneration, and open-habitat conservation to guide management and evaluate ecological outcomes in urban botanic gardens.