Analysis of European Energy Transition Policies and Their Interactions: Mixed Risks for Sustainability and Competitiveness

European Union energy transition policy has developed through successive layers of climate, energy security, industrial and electricity market measures. This structured critical review examines identifiable cross-policy mechanisms within three interaction families: energy security, decarbonisation and strategic/industrial autonomy; carbon pricing and industrial competitiveness; and electrification, system capacity and implementation. An evidence-contingent Structured Cross-Policy Interaction Analysis (SCPIA) organises 18 policy pairs and 28 outcome-specific records, distinguishing policy design, implementation evidence, observed effects, modelled effects and prospective risks. Classification is outcome-specific and permits abstention when evidence is insufficient. Of the 28 admitted outcomes, 21 receive a class (11 reinforcing, eight trade-offs and two direct conflicts) and seven remain justified abstentions; 22 rest mainly on legal design rather than observed effects. The same policy pair can reinforce one outcome while implying a prospective trade-off for another, as in the coordination of the EU carbon border adjustment with the phase-out of free emission allowances. Two human assessors examined a purposively selected subset of 15 outcome records and agreed on the initial reported interaction and class assignments in all 15; subsequent source-threshold assessment is recorded separately. The review contributes a traceable, evidence-sensitive procedure for comparing cross-policy interactions and integrates substantive findings across three EU energy transition policy families.