Russia’s agro-industrial complex in 2022-2025: adaptation to sanctions, production growth, and challenges of technological sovereignty

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the functioning of Russia’s agro-industrial complex for the period 2022–2025, which was marked by unprecedented sanctions pressure. Despite the growth of some macroeconomic indicators, including record grain harvests in 2022, the study revealed critical structural deficiencies in the system. The methodology is based on a decomposition analysis of production chains in key sectors: crop production and dairy farming. The analysis revealed a significant degree of import dependence in key strategic segments: breeding and genetic materials, veterinary drugs, feed components, high-tech equipment, and packaging solutions. The paper systematizes the main consequences of this dependence, such as rising production costs, increased production risks, and the threat of technological lag. An analysis of the consequences of import dependence and measures for import substitution in the Russian agro-industrial complex is provided. It is concluded that the observed positive dynamics are unsustainable and mask systemic risks, the overcoming of which requires the formation of a comprehensive state policy aimed at achieving technological sovereignty in the agro-industrial complex and aiming to create a high-tech industry with sustainable export potential for high-added-value products and ensuring food security for the country.