Climate, Poverty, and Food Security Dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: A Panel VAR Analysis

This study examines the dynamic relationships among climate‐related indicators, poverty, and food security using panel cointegration and panel vector autoregression (PVAR) methods for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over the period 2000–2024. The empirical results indicate a long‐run equilibrium relationship among the variables, suggesting that food security and carbon emissions are associated with long‐term poverty dynamics. At the same time, the effects of temperature and other climate‐related indicators appear to be more temporary. In the short run, poverty and food security are primarily associated with their own innovations, whereas food security and climate‐related factors become more relevant to poverty dynamics over longer horizons. These findings represent dynamic associations within the estimated panel model rather than direct causal effects. The results highlight the potential importance of integrated social protection, food security, and climate adaptation strategies for supporting sustainable poverty reduction in the GCC region.