Urban Dynamics and the Transformation of Food Systems in Grand Lomé (Togo): An Integrated Analysis of Population Growth, Land Use, and Socioeconomic Infrastructure

Rapid urbanization is profoundly transforming territories and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa. However, few studies have simultaneously examined the interrelationships among demographic dynamics, land-use change, socioeconomic infrastructure development, and food-system transformation. This study analyses these interactions in Grand Lomé (Togo) to assess the effects of urban growth on territorial organization and food systems. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining analysis of national census data, remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), a survey of 310 households, qualitative interviews, and econometric modeling. The results show that the population grew from approximately 85,000 inhabitants within Lomé’s administrative boundaries in 1960 to 2,188,376 inhabitants across the 13 municipalities of Grand Lomé in 2022. This trend reflects a combination of population growth, urban expansion, and the progressive enlargement of the administrative area. Based on the assumptions adopted, the population of Grand Lomé could reach approximately 4.56 million inhabitants by 2050. Between 1994 and 2024, built-up areas increased by 170.4%, while farmland and vegetation cover declined by 93.4% and 57.1%, respectively. Granger causality tests reveal strong associations between demographic trends and land-use changes. Relationships with vegetation (F = 3.061; p = 0.064) and hydrography (F = 3.225; p = 0.056) are significant at the 10% level, unlike the relationship with built-up areas (F = 0.194; p = 0.825). Despite widespread access to electricity, disparities persist regarding drinking water, sanitation, waste collection, land tenure security, and logistics infrastructure. At the same time, food systems are evolving toward mixed sourcing and distribution models, while traditional methods remain dominant in transport and storage. They highlight the need for integrated urban planning that balances the preservation of agricultural land, development of resilient infrastructure, and food systems strengthening in order to promote sustainable urban development in the metropolitan areas of sub-Saharan Africa.