Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from Forest Fires in Heilongjiang Province, China (2001–2022)

Forest fires are an important disturbance to the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems and a major source of regional carbon emissions. This study used the emission factor method to estimate forest fire CO2, CO, and CH4 emissions in Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2022. The geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was applied to examine spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the relationships between driving factors and CO2 emissions. Cumulative CO2, CO, and CH4 emissions were 72.95 Tg, 5171.73 Gg, and 246.54 Gg, respectively. Mean emissions per hectare of burned forest were 32.02, 2.27, and 0.108 Mg ha−1 for CO2, CO, and CH4, respectively. Emissions of all three gases showed significant downward trends (p < 0.001) and a bimodal monthly pattern with spring and autumn peaks. Deciduous broadleaf forests contributed 95.6% of CO2 emissions. Spatially, CO2 emissions were higher in the north than in the south and exhibited significant spatial clustering. The GTWR model achieved an adjusted R2 of 0.585, and fractional vegetation cover was the main influencing factor among the variables examined. Forest fire carbon emission estimates remain subject to some uncertainty. The results provide scientific support for regional forest fire risk management and forest fire carbon emission mitigation.