Associations Between Actual and Preferred Commuting Modes of University Students in Central Santiago, Chile

This paper investigates the actual and preferred commuting travel modes of university students at a centrally located campus in Santiago, Chile. Utilizing a survey sample of 362 students, multinomial logistic regression models were estimated to identify the individual, attitudinal, social, and environmental factors associated with mobility choices. To ensure model stability and overcome structural data sparsity, public transportation was established as the primary baseline analytical reference category for actual behavior modeling. The descriptive data reveal a pronounced gap between observed commuting behavior and abstract preferences: public transport overwhelmingly dominates actual travel (84.0%), whereas most students report a preference for private cars (67.1%). In the final audited actual mode-choice model, only structural and institutional barriers—specifically holding a driving licence, household size, travel distance, and severe cycling unsafety and infrastructure barriers—were statistically supported as predictors of actual behavior. Attitudinal and social factors were non-significant and statistically inconclusive regarding actual mode choice. In contrast, stated preferences under an unspecified idealized condition were significantly explained by public-transport attitudes, network distance, gender (with male students exhibiting higher preferences for public transport and active modes relative to cars), age, and continuous Body Mass Index (BMI). These findings uncover a distinct attitude-behavior gap and demonstrate that while subjective viewpoints heavily shape unconstrained travel preferences, actual campus mobility remains rigidly bound by physical infrastructure realities. The study highlights that regional campus sustainability strategies must look beyond raw observed modal shares and prioritize hard structural interventions rather than purely attitudinal messaging.