Does Supply-Chain Efficiency Lose Its Value Under Uncertainty? Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Lean supply chains release capital and support profitability, but they may leave firms exposed when conditions become hard to predict. This study examines whether the financial value of supply-chain efficiency depends on macroeconomic uncertainty, using 182 non-financial firms listed on the Saudi Exchange over 2015–2025 (1622 firm-years). Efficiency is measured by a working-capital-based Supply Chain Efficiency Index (SCEI) built from standardized inventory and receivables periods, and the macroeconomic environment reported by the World Uncertainty Index for Saudi Arabia, global economic policy uncertainty, inflation, interest rates and oil price volatility. Panel models with industry and year fixed effects, system GMM, event studies of the 2014–2016 oil price collapse and the 2020 COVID-19 shock, and multiple-testing corrections are used. Efficiency is positively associated with ROA, ROE and Tobin’s Q, predicts next-year performance and remains significant in GMM estimates, but not in within-firm (firm fixed-effects) models. There is no strong evidence that the efficiency premium weakens when uncertainty, inflation, interest rates or oil price volatility are high, even for the most oil-exposed firms. Some narrowing appears only during the 2020 shock, and efficient firms fell less in both extreme shocks. For financial outcomes, the efficiency–resilience trade-off appears episodic rather than a continuous cost of routine uncertainty.