Spatiotemporal Impact Mechanism of Urban Expansion on Grain Production in Central China

Central China is a highly concentrated area of urban expansion and a major grain-producing region that accounts for 28.75% of the country’s total grain yield. This study investigates the spatiotemporal relationships between urban expansion and grain production in Central China from 2000 to 2025 using spatial database construction, grid-based analysis, GeoDetector, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and structural equation modeling (SEM). The main findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2025, urban expansion accelerated substantially, with the urban population increasing by 205.86% and construction land expanding by 169.15%. This expansion was accompanied by the loss of 8659.63 km2 of cultivated land. Nevertheless, total grain production increased by 43.44% during the same period. (2) Three major pathways linking urban expansion and grain production were identified. Urbanization was negatively associated with grain production through cultivated land loss, while economic development, technological progress, and agricultural investment were positively associated with grain production. Meanwhile, growing grain demand was associated with adjustments in grain cropping structure and multiple cropping intensity. (3) Agricultural investment played an important connecting role between economic development and grain production by supporting technological innovation, mechanization, and cropping structure adjustments, thereby helping sustain grain production despite declining cultivated land area. (4) The six major metropolitan areas experienced the greatest cultivated land losses but also substantial grain production growth. Despite intensified land-use pressures, spatial gains in grain production exceeded spatial losses. Improvements in grain production per unit of sown area accounted for 58.91% of the total production increase in these areas, highlighting the importance of enhanced agricultural production capacity in sustaining grain production growth.