The role of tree cover in enhancing paddock resilience: insights from remote sensing in amazonian silvopastoral systems

Silvopastoral systems are vital for enhancing tropical pasture sustainability and mitigating degradation, yet their temporal dynamics under varying climates remain insufficiently quantified. This study evaluated the influence of tree cover on vegetation dynamics in an Amazonian silvopastoral system from 2016 to 2025. Sentinel-2 derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) time series were analyzed across 110 paddocks, utilizing Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS to assess long-term trends and seasonal patterns. Tree cover percentage, extracted from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle imagery, was used to stratify paddocks. Results demonstrated that higher tree cover consistently correlated with elevated NDVI and NDMI values. During periods of lower precipitation (2019–2022), paddocks with greater tree cover exhibited slower declines and faster recoveries, indicating enhanced resistance to hydrological stress and reduced intra-annual variability. Statistical modeling revealed a significant negative association between tree cover and NDVI amplitude during specific drier years (2019, 2020, and 2022), indicating greater seasonal spectral stability alongside an overall increase in dry-season NDVI. However, during the extreme 2024 drier condition, differences among classes diminished, suggesting limits to the trees’ buffering capacity. These findings indicate that higher tree cover was associated with greater stability and resilience in the studied pasture system under moderate climatic stress, though extreme conditions can constrain these effects. Ultimately, this study highlights scattered trees as a key structural component, suggesting their potential role in strategies to bolster silvopasture resilience across the Amazonian agricultural frontier.