Affiliated Workforce Ageing and Shifting Injury Incidence Rates of the Ecuadorian Construction Sector

Introduction The construction sector in developing economies is facing a dual challenge: an ageing workforce and evolving occupational safety risks. Objective To analyze an evolution of temporary disability occupational injuries (TDOIs) incidence rates (IR) among affiliated workers in the Ecuadorian construction sector, segmented by age groups. Methods A longitudinal study (2010–2024) was conducted using official administrative records from the General Insurance for Work Risks (Seguro General de Riesgos del Trabajo [SGRT]). Age‐specific IRs per 1000 workers were calculated. Time‐trend analysis was performed using simple linear regression, Durbin–Watson (DW) tests for residual independence, and log‐linear generalized linear models (GLM) to estimate annual percentage changes (EAPC) in injury IRs across cohorts. Results The study identified a significant inversion of risk within the sector. The youngest cohort (≤24 years) experienced a marked decrease in injury IRs, falling from 16.6 to 3.7 per 1000 workers ( p < 0.001). In contrast, the oldest group (≥45 years) was the only cohort to show a significant increase, with IRs rising from 2.8 to 6.9 ( p < 0.001). By 2024, workers aged ≥45 years reached the highest IR (6.94 per 1000 workers; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.05–7.98), significantly surpassing the youngest group (3.70 per 1000 workers; 95% CI: 2.46–5.57) and displaying a positive long‐term trend (EAPC = +4.20%; p < 0.001). Conclusion The traditional paradigm of the young worker as the primary risk group has shifted. There is an urgent need for age‐specific prevention policies according to the needs of the ageing affiliated workforce in Ecuador.