From territorial deprivation trap to innovation precinct: A causal-asset framework for industrial heritage brownfield land use change

Preservation-led programs dominate the regeneration of heritage-industrial brownfields in Global South cities, overshadowing territorial assets, constraints, and demand. Few replicable, demand-first, multi-scale frameworks explain how post-industrial land-use changes can be derived in institutionally complex and economically stressed contexts. This research proposes a causal-asset framework based on sustainable urban livelihoods, asset-based community development, and system dynamics to study the role of assets, barriers, and feedback loops in determining adaptive reuse strategies. The framework is applied to the Ray Cement Factory, Tehran, Iran, a case rich in information combining national industrial heritage, long-term underuse, metropolitan accessibility, university assets, and reuse constraints. The methodology innovatively integrated three-scale asset inventory; purposive group model building; causal diagramming; and strategy derivation. The analysis reveals two interconnected negative dynamics due to the absence of innovative spatial infrastructure. One is a territorial deprivation trap characterized by skills deficits and suppressed entrepreneurship, and the other is an asset underutilization trap that leads to heritage deterioration and disinvestment. The breaking of this link can trigger two self-reinforcing structures, the Innovation Ecosystem Loop and the Heritage Identity Loop, that underpin precinct viability. This study contributes by deriving programming from diagnosed territorial demand. It operationalizes heritage-historical capital as a non-substitutable, stock-like category grounded in a national-first industrial identity. The findings indicate that asset-strategy coherence requires alignment at the metropolitan, immediate urban, and site levels. The framework helps planners connect heritage protection, economic activation, and policy coordination.